Multialternative decision by sampling : a model of decision making constrained by process data

Sequential sampling of evidence, or evidence accumulation, has been implemented in a variety of models to explain a range of multialternative choice phenomena. But the existing models do not agree on what, exactly, the evidence is that is accumulated. They also do not agree on how this evidence is accumulated. In this article, we use findings from process-tracing studies to constrain the evidence accumulation process. With these constraints, we extend the decision by sampling model and propose the multialternative decision by sampling (MDbS) model. In MDbS, the evidence accumulated is outcomes of pairwise ordinal comparisons between attribute values. MDbS provides a quantitative account of the attraction, compromise, and similarity effects equal to that of other models, and captures a wider range of empirical phenomena than other models

Issues related to velocity structure estimation in small coastal sedimentary plains: case of Tottori plain facing the Sea of Japan

Issues of predominant period of ground motion and derived underground velocity structure model are investigated in the coastal plains affected by the shallow soft sedimentary layer after the last ice age. It is found that two predominant periods due to the shallow soft layer and deeper drastic sedimentary boundaries are close in a small plain such as the Tottori plain, Japan as an example. This study analyzes the underground velocity structure derived from EHVSR (H/V spectrum ratio of earthquake ground motions) with the diffuse field theory. It is considered that the interaction of close predominant periods due to the different layer boundaries with high contrast may amplify the seismic ground motion in the period range that affects building structures in small plains in coastal area

Description-experience gap in choice deferral

Facing a large set of alternatives has previously been reported to lead to choice overload, including choice deferral. Recent studies, however, imply that choice deferral is more tightly associated with the difficulty in evaluating alternatives than with set size: when alternatives are difficult to evaluate, people often defer a choice. This implication is examined in the present study, using alternatives with probabilistic payoffs in 2 paradigms: the description paradigm—with full probability and payoff information provided at 1 time—and the sampling paradigm—with search revealing 1 payoff at a time and repeated search required to derive probabilities and payoffs. The results show that in both paradigms, choice deferral is less frequent when set size is large. Also, the difficulty in evaluating alternatives influences choice deferral in the description paradigm but not in the sampling paradigm: when a payoff from an alternative can take many possible values, a choice is more likely deferred in the description paradigm. In the sampling paradigm, in contrast, information search is often insufficient for people to recognize the difficulty in evaluating alternatives. These results point to a description-experience gap in choice deferral

Instantaneous conventions : the emergence of flexible communicative signals

Humans can communicate even with few existing conventions in common (e.g., when they lack a shared language). We explored what makes this phenomenon possible with a nonlinguistic experimental task requiring participants to coordinate towards a common goal. We observed participants creating new communicative conventions using the most minimal possible signals. These conventions, furthermore, changed trial-by-trial in response to shared environmental and task constraints. Strikingly, as a result, signals of the same form were able to successfully convey contradictory messages from trial to trial. Such behavior implicates what we term "joint inference," in which social interactants are inferring, in the moment, the most sensible communicative convention in light of their common ground. Joint inference may help to elucidate how communicative conventions emerge “instantaneously,” and how they are modified and reshaped into the elaborate systems of conventions involved in human communication, including natural languages

Effect of the surface geology on strong ground motions due to the 2016 Central Tottori Earthquake, Japan

On October 21, 2016, an earthquake with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) magnitude 6.6 hit the central part of Tottori Prefecture, Japan. This paper demonstrates two notable effects of the surface geology on strong ground motions due to the earthquake. One is a predominant period issue observed over a large area. A seismic intensity of 6 lower on the JMA scale was registered at three sites in the disaster area. However, the peak ground acceleration ranged from 0.3 to 1.4 G at the three sites because of the varying peak periods of observed strong ground motions. The spectral properties of the observations also reflect the damage around the sites. Three-component microtremors were observed in the area; the predominant ground period distributions based on horizontal to vertical spectral ratios were provided by the authors. The peak periods of the strong motion records agree well with predominant periods estimated from microtremor observations at a rather hard site; however, the predominant periods of the microtremors are slightly shorter than those of the main shock at the other two soft sites. We checked the nonlinear effect at the sites by comparing the site responses to small events and the main shock. The peak periods of the main shock were longer than those of the weak motions at the sites. This phenomenon indicates a nonlinear site effect due to large ground motions caused by the main shock. A horizontal component of the accelerogram showed rather pulsating swings that indicate cyclic mobility behavior, especially at a site close to a pond shore; ground subsidence of ~20 cm was observed around the site. The peak periods of weak motions agree well with those of the microtremor observations. This implies an important issue that the predominant periods estimated by microtremors are not sufficient to estimate the effect of surface geology for disaster mitigation. We have to estimate the predominant periods under large ground motions considering the nonlinear site response of soft sediment sites

Eye movements in strategic choice

In risky and other multiattribute choices, the process of choosing is well described by random walk or drift diffusion models in which evidence is accumulated over time to threshold. In strategic choices, level-k and cognitive hierarchy models have been offered as accounts of the choice process, in which people simulate the choice processes of their opponents or partners. We recorded the eye movements in 2 × 2 symmetric games including dominance-solvable games like prisoner's dilemma and asymmetric coordination games like stag hunt and hawk–dove. The evidence was most consistent with the accumulation of payoff differences over time: we found longer duration choices with more fixations when payoffs differences were more finely balanced, an emerging bias to gaze more at the payoffs for the action ultimately chosen, and that a simple count of transitions between payoffs—whether or not the comparison is strategically informative—was strongly associated with the final choice. The accumulator models do account for these strategic choice process measures, but the level-k and cognitive hierarchy models do not

Eye movements in strategic choice

In risky and other multiattribute choices, the process of choosing is well described by random walk or drift diffusion models in which evidence is accumulated over time to threshold. In strategic choices, level-k and cognitive hierarchy models have been offered as accounts of the choice process, in which people simulate the choice processes of their opponents or partners. We recorded the eye movements in 2 × 2 symmetric games including dominance-solvable games like prisoner's dilemma and asymmetric coordination games like stag hunt and hawk–dove. The evidence was most consistent with the accumulation of payoff differences over time: we found longer duration choices with more fixations when payoffs differences were more finely balanced, an emerging bias to gaze more at the payoffs for the action ultimately chosen, and that a simple count of transitions between payoffs—whether or not the comparison is strategically informative—was strongly associated with the final choice. The accumulator models do account for these strategic choice process measures, but the level-k and cognitive hierarchy models do not

Social Capital and Post-traumatic Stress Disorder among Heavy Rainfall and Flood Victims in Japan

This study examined the relationship between cognitive/structural social capital and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among victims of heavy rain and flood. Participants were individuals aged≥18 years affected by the July 2018 heavy rainfall in the cities of Kurashiki and Soja, Japan, and living in temporary housing. We distributed five copies of a questionnaire to 1,991 households and received responses from 1,927 individuals (907 men, 1,008 women, 12 respondents of unspecified sex) in 1,029 households (51.7%). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between high (vs. low) social capital and PTSD or other outcomes. After covariate adjustment, the odds of having PTSD were lower in participants with high cognitive social capital than those with low cognitive social capital (OR=0.346, 95%CI: 0.263-0.456). Elderly women with higher structural social capital tended to have lower PTSD odds than those with lower structural social capital (OR=0.671, 95%CI: 0.431-1.046). The opposite pattern was observed for elderly men (OR=1.315, 95%CI: 0.792-2.183). Cognitive social capital is a protective factor that may reduce PTSD or promote a favorable PTSD prognosis after heavy rainfall and flood events. The associations between structural social capital and PTSD differ by age and sex

Adult onset cardiac dilatation in a transgenic mouse line with Galβ1,3GalNAc α2,3-sialyltransferase II (ST3Gal-II) transgenes: a new model for dilated cardiomyopathy

Sugar chain abnormalities in glycolipids and glycoproteins are associated with various diseases. Here, we report an adult onset cardiac dilatation in a transgenic mouse line with Galβ1,3GalNAc α2,3-sialyltransferase II (ST3Gal-II) transgenes. The transgenic hearts at the end-stage, at around 7 months old, were enlarged, with enlarged cavities and thin, low-tensile walls, typical of dilated cardiomyopathy. Although no apparent change was found in heart gangliosides, glycosylation of heart proteins was altered. Interestingly, sugar moieties not directly related to the ST3Gal-II catalytic reaction were also changed. Significant increases in calreticulin and calnexin were observed in hearts of the transgenic mice. These results suggest that expression of ST3Gal-II transgenes induces abnormal protein glycosylation, which disorganizes the endoplasmic/sarcoplasmic reticulum quality control system and elevates the calreticulin/calnexin level, resulting in suppression of cardiac function. The transgenic mice showed 100% incidence of adult onset cardiac dilatation, suggesting great potential as a new model for dilated cardiomyopathy